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Week 5 NFL Blog – Lenny Del Genio

10/08/2010

Denver (38.5) at Baltimore (-7) – Expect at least a SU victory by the Ravens in this one as they are 29-5 SU as home chalk since ’03. However, laying this many points to a dangerous Denver team could spell trouble at the betting window as Baltimore is 1-4 ATS the week following Pittsburgh and has Denver on deck. Broncos QB Kyle Orton has thrown for 780 yds the past two weeks.

St. Louis (42.5) at Detroit (-3) – The Rams only win last year came here against the Lions. The Rams point differential of +25 is third best in the NFC. Three of Detroit’s losses have come by a combined 10 points. QB Matthew Stafford could return for the home team this week (check status).

Tampa Bay (38) at Cincinnati (-6.5) – The Bengals are horrible as chalk, covering just one of ten in that role following last week’s outright loss at Cleveland. They are 0-6 ATS as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is off a bye week and is 7-5 ATS L12 in that situation.

Chicago (33) at Carolina (-1.5) – The winless Panthers are now favored with the Cutler injury for Chicago. Todd Collins, an 18-year vet, gets the start for the Bears here. Carolina is just 1-5 ATS when hosting non-division foes.

Tennessee (41.5) at Dallas (-7) – The Titans have been very good vs. the NFC recently, winning nine straight games. They are 34-15 ATS L49 non-conference games, including 13-4 ATS vs. the NFC East. Dallas is off its bye week and has won five straight years coming off the bye. They have also covered 10 of 15 as home chalk.

Philadelphia (38) at San Francisco (-3) – Incredibly all four winless teams are favored this week. The Eagles QB situation has come full circle with Kevin Kolb starting in place for the injured Mike Vick. This is Philly’s third road game in four weeks. They have beaten San Francisco each of the last two years.

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