NCAA Bracketology Preview (part 4)03/02/2011
March Madness and the NCAA Tournament are unquestionably the peak time for college basketball betting. In our first NCAA Bracketology preview, we told you about our weekly free newsletter and annual Bracketology article, which will become available on March 15th. In our second blog, we discussed how certain seeds (2 through 4) fare in the opening round. Then we moved to the more “upset-minded” matchups of 5 vs. 12 and 6 vs. 11 in our last blog.
We finish our first round Bracketology analysis by examining the 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 matchups, which are essentially coin-flip contests.
The 7 vs. 10 matchup is a very important one to analyze. This is because history says at least one will reach the Sweet 16. Last year, St. Mary’s continued the trend after no teams seed 7 or 10 made it out of the second round in 2009. From 2004-08, seven seeds dominated their tenth seeded counterparts to the tune of 15-5 SU, including 7-1 SU in 2007-08. However, the last two years have seen a reversal of fortune as 10 seeds are now 6-2 SU in the first round the past two tournaments.
The lower seeded 9 seeds actually have a winning record vs. the 8 seeds. That being said, it’s almost a 50/50 split and over the last six tournaments there has never been a 4-0 sweep by other side. The last three years have seen a 2-2 split each time.
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