Posts Tagged ‘March Madness’

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Hollywood Sports – TV Announcers Wrong Again – March Madness Edition

03/18/2011

I just heard Tim Brando say during the Old Dominion-Butler game that the committee got it half right with their controversial bubble selections as VCU beat USC but UAB lost to Clemson. Actually, those results do NOT prove anything (maybe Colorado would have lost even worse to Clemson … or maybe UAB would beat VCU and really mess with Brando’s head). Matchups, travel, the specific situation (the things that handicappers look at before the game starts) — these are all unique variables that can impact the outcome of one game — and one game does not make a proper sample size. Ken Pomeroy’s deep metrics forecast that Ohio State has a 99.1% of defeating Texas-San Antonio straight up. In other words, Texas-San Antonio would probably defeat the overall number-one seed once in one hundred contests. If (and when) that statistical improbability occurred, that would NOT prove that Ohio State was not deserving of a one-seed or some other rear view mirror hasty generalization. 32 teams are going to lose their basketball game over the next two days. Their defeat does not really say anything about their worthiness to be in the tournament since it is a statistical inevitability that 32 teams somewhere have to lose their games. So when the next announcer tries to make a broader conclusion from the results of one of these games, consider it for what it is: garbage.

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Matt Fargo – NCAA Early Season Betting Tips

09/02/2010

It is hard to believe but the college football season is upon us! While it signals a near end to summer, it also signals the start of the best time of year in sports in my opinion. Some will argue March Madness and futball people will argue the World Cup but football is where it is.

Handicapping the early part of college football can be a challenge as there is not a whole lot to go by. Unlike the NFL, past history (even back to last season) needs to be looked at cautiously because of the turnover that college programs go through.

How do we tackle these early season games? There are a number of factors we need to take into account and use to our advantage.

Experience

This is one of the bigger aspects of early betting. As mentioned, turnover is big in this game so teams coming back with a lot of returning players usually have a big edge against teams with little experience returning. This is especially important across the offensive and defensive lines.

Depth

Fall camps are long and tiresome for teams and players and a lot of them may still not be in 100 percent playing shape. While returning starters is what most look at, take a look at returning lettermen as well as depth plays a huge role in these early season games. A lot of depth means fresher bodies throughout a game.

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